Report on a lecture arranged by the Committee for National Defence Studies on 27 June 2007 and given by Brigadier Alain Lamballe.

Neither India nor Pakistan has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.By carrying out tests in 1998, they therefore violated no international agreement but dealt a severe blow to non-proliferation by inciting other countries, including Iran, to develop nuclear weapons. The purpose of India’s strike force is to deter China; Pakistan hopes that with a credible strike force it will be able to deter any major attack by India. The nuclear phenomenon is now firmly entrenched in the minds of all those on the subcontinent, where the arms race continues without let-up on all fronts: witness the many launches of ballistic and cruise missiles by both countries. And now that radical Islamist movements are showing an interest in nuclear weapons systems there is a risk of tipping from the rational to the irrational world, with all its attendant dangers.

China is selling to India a range of manufactured products at prices that defy competition, is installing high-tech companies and buying up others that are in difficulty, and submitting tenders for port modernisation projects. Faced with this onslaught, India is being circumspect: naturally it wants to develop relations with its northern neighbour, but wants to be able to control them, and to settle the frontier questions. Citing security problems, it is being reticent about overly liberal trans-Himalayan and maritime exchanges, and is keeping China at arm’s length from its port modernisation programme. On the other hand, India is allowing some of its big industrial groups to set up in China, where it is expanding in the banking sector.

With more than a billion inhabitants India can no longer be ignored, and is looking outwards. It is true that at present its international impact and its power appear relatively feeble when compared with its neighbour China; however, India is stirring, its potential is becoming clearer, and its role is growing in the political, economic end even military spheres of world affairs. The world is changing, and India will contribute to this change.